Math4826/Math4826.html

Math 4826: Time Series and Forecasting

Spring Semester, 2024, Thursday 12:30-13:20 SCI501, Friday 15:30-17:20 LMC514

http://www.math.hkbu.edu.hk/~hpeng/Math4826.html

Instructor: PENG, Heng, Professor. Office: FSC1205. Phone: 3411-7021.

E-mail: hpeng@hkbu.edu.hk

Teaching Assistant: WANG Yuyuan (20482116@life.hkbu.edu.hk), NI Jingyi (22482806@life.hkbu.edu.hk)

Office Hours: Wednesday 9:30-12:30 and Friday 9:30-12:30, or by appointments.

Syllabus and Others: click here

Lecture notes 1

Canadian lynx data

Interest rate data

Three-month Treasury bill

Six-month Treasury bill

Twelve-month Treasury bill

The Standard and Poor's 500 Index

An environment data set

Signal processing-deceleration during car crashes

Time Series Data About Hong Kong

1. Payment Trend

2. Confirmed Coronvirus Cases in Hong Kong

3. Hang Seng Index from 2006-2020: Daily, Week, Month

4. Stock Price of HSBC from 2006-2020: Daily, Week

Financial Time Series Charactistics

1. daily simple returns of the International Business Machines (IBM) stock

2. IBM stock from January 1926 to December 2008

3. U.S. interest rates from April 1953 to February 2009

* 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate

* 1-year maturity rate

4. daily exchange rate between U.S. dollar and Japanese yen from January 4, 2000, to March 27, 2009

Lecture notes 2

R code for regression

Lecture notes 3

R code for Exponential Smoothing

Lecture notes 4

Appendix notes1 for Lectutre Note 4

Cases Study

Appendix notes2 for R application in Time Series Analysis

Matlab Programs

Chapter 1

Plot figures for datasets of Example 1.1-1.4

Simulating AR(2) Model

Compute AR(2) Model predicted error

Simulating ARIMA(1,1,1) Model

Chapter 2

Datasets

Running Performance

Program

Running Performance Analysis

Chapter 3

Example 3.1 Annual U.S. Production: Dataset, Main Program, Function: 1

Example 3.2 Quarterly Iowa Nonfarm Income: Dataset, Main Program, Functions: 1 2

Example 3.3 Weekly Thermostat Sales: Dataset, Main Program, Functions 1 2

Example 3.4 Car Sales: Dataset, Main Program, Functions: 1 2

Example 3.5 New Plant and Equipment Expenditures: Dataset, Main Program, Functions: 1 2 3

Chapter 4

Example 4.1 Yield Data: Dataset, Main Program, Function: 1

Cases Study

Datasets

Weekly egg prices at a German agricultural market between April 1967 and May 1990

GE daily returns for GE common stock from December 1999 to December 2000.

Quarterly earning per share of Johnson and Johnson from 1960 to 1980.

The monthly simple returns of the CRSP Decile 1 index from January 1960 to December 2003 for 528 observations.

The 1-year and 3-year U.S. treasury constant maturity rates.

Assignments

Projects